The International Air Transport Association is predicting global airline profits will fall 16 per cent next year amid higher oil prices and slower global traffic growth.Next year will also see almost 4 billion travellers to take to the air and 55.7 million tonnes of cargo transported as the industry accounts for almost 1 per cent of global GDP. An IATA global forecast released on Thursday predicts 2017 will see global profits slide to $US29.8 billion, or $US7.54 per passenger, after reaching a cyclical peak this year of $US35.6 billion.It also lowered its 2016 profit estimates from a June estimate of $US39.4 billion due to lower global GDP growth and rising costs., although they remain slightly ahead of 2015’s figure of $US35.3 billion. Nonetheless, this was still the highest absolute profit generated by the airline industry and the highest net profit margin of 5.1 per cent.IATA director general Alexandre de Juniac said the industry continued to deliver strong results, although what were record profits for airlines were considered normal for most other businesses.“Even though conditions in 2017 will be more difficult with rising oil prices, we see the industry earning $29.8 billion,’’ de Juniac said. “That’s a very soft landing and safely in profitable territory. These three years are the best performance in the industry’s history—irrespective of the many uncertainties we face. Indeed, risks are abundant— political, economic and security among them.’’Next year’s profit is expected to be hit by a rise in oil prices from an average this year of $US44.60 a barrel to $US55. This will push up jet fuel prices from $US52.10 per barrel to $US64.90.IATA’s forecast noted that while this will account for almost 19 per cent of the industry’s cost structure next year, it will still be less than the average of 33.2 per cent in 2012-13. One impact of the higher prices will be a slowing in traffic growth from 5.9 per cent this year to 5.1 per cent next year. Although capacity growth will also slow, industry load factors are expected to fall from 80.2 percent this year to 79.8 per cent.“The negative impact of a lower load factor is expected to be offset somewhat by a strengthening of global economic growth, ‘’ IATA said in its analysis. “ World GDP is projected to expand by 2.5 per cent in 2017 (up from 2.2 per cent in 2016).“Along with structural changes in the industry, this is expected to help stabilize yields for both the cargo and passenger businesses. This is a welcome development as yields (calculated in dollar terms) have fallen each year since 2012.’’Industry consolidation means North American carriers are expected to remain the most profitable with net profits of $US18.1 billion, down from $US20.3 billion this year. They will also have the strongest net margin of 8.5 per cent and the highest average profit per passenger of $US19.58. Capacity next year is expected to grow by 2.6 percent compared to demand growth of 2.5 per cent.European carriers will see a significant fall in aggregate net profit from $US7.5 billion this year to $US5.6 billion next year, the equivalent of $US5.65 per passenger. Capacity growth of 4.3 per cent will outstrip demand growth of 4 per cent in a region IATA characterised as being subject to intense competition “hampered by high costs, onerous regulation and high taxes’’.The association also noted that terrorist threats remained a real risk despite returning confidence after recent incidents.In the Asia- Pacific, carriers were expected generate a net profit of $US6.3 billion next year, down from $US7.3 billion, with per passenger profits at $US4.44. Capacity was expected to jump 7.6 per cent and outstrip a 7 per cent growth in demand.“Improved cargo performance is expected to offset rising fuel prices for many of the region’s airlines,’’ the analysis said. “The expansion of new model airlines and progressive liberalization in the region is intensifying already strong competition. In addition, profitability varies widely across the region.’’The forecast for the Middle East came with a warning that the region’s rapidly expanding carriers face threats in the new year that included rising airport charges and growing air traffic control delays.The carriers were expected to make a net profit of $US300 million, down from $US900 million.“Average yields for the region’s carriers are low but unit costs are even lower, partly driven by the strong capacity expansion, forecast at 10.1 per cent …. ahead of expected demand growth of 9.0 per cent,’’ IATA said.Profit per passenger in Latin America is tipped to be less than $1 as the region’s carrier post a net profit $US200 million, down from $300 million this year. Capacity is expected to grow at 4.8 per cent ahead of demand growth of 4 per cent.“Despite some signs of improvement in the region’s currencies and economic prospects, operating conditions remain challenging, with infrastructure deficiencies, high taxes, and a growing regulatory burden across the continent,’’ IATA said.Regional conflict and low commodity prices will again see African carriers make an overall loss of $9.97 per passenger or $US800 million. Capacity in 2017 is expected to grow by 4.7 per cent, ahead of a 4.5 per cent growth in demand.
We’re highlighting one article about the real-time web from off-site every day, leading up to the October 15th ReadWrite Real-Time Web Summit. Data normalization, Activity Streams, filtering and APIs are going to be big topics of conversation there. We hope you’ll join us for those conversations. marshall kirkpatrick A Web Developer’s New Best Friend is the AI Wai… Tags:#Data Portability#Lifestreaming#NYT#Real-Time Web#web 8 Best WordPress Hosting Solutions on the Market Why Tech Companies Need Simpler Terms of Servic… Social media aggregator Cliqset today announced a new beta version of its platform that aggregates activity feeds from 70 different social media sites, transforms them into normalized Activity Streams standard data and then pushes them out in real time.The company’s offers multiple ways to access the data through its API but also hopes that more users will stick with its own, now much improved, user interface. The first 200 ReadWriteWeb readers to click this link will gain access to the new beta version of the site.What does Cliqset offer that the Facebook-acquired FriendFeed doesn’t? According to Cliqset: “We’re much more standards compliant, we allow broader sharing, granular filters, a different permissions model, a much more open API and we have more services tied to ours (70 vs. FriendFeed’s 50).”The most important thing Cliqset is doing is probably transforming all these different update feeds into the standardized format called Activity Streams. That format is already being supported by Facebook, MySpace, Windows Live and Opera.Michael Calore explains what Cliqset is doing with Activity Streams as follows:A huge bonus is that Cliqset is using the emerging Activity Streams data specification to make all this happen. Activity Streams is an open-source XML-based format that uses a common actor-verb-asset model to report an activity on a social website. For example, “Amy shared a video” or “Mike rated this photo.” It’s a simple organizing principle that allows social web services to more easily talk to each other about what their users are doing.But if not everyone is reporting their users’ activity data using a common model, it becomes harder to get two services to talk to each other. And only a handful of sites are supporting Activity Streams right now.As Cliqset co-founder Darren Bounds tells Webmonkey, Cliqset is actually re-writing all the aggregated data streams into the Activity Streams format, physically cleaning up the social web’s mess as it goes.Cliqset tells us that it’s working on making a streaming API for this data available and let us in on some secret projects to bring real-time cross-platform data flowing to places around the web that it’s not available today.Right now you cannot easily pull Activity Streams feeds through Cliqset for people who have not signed up for the service themselves. It would be great if Cliqset began consuming the Webfinger protocol, for example and let me point at all my Google Contacts, discover their social media sites from around the web and then transform those into Activity Streams for consumption in other apps. That future isn’t here and it may never be, but a web user can hope.For now the company is using the long polling method and this newly normalized data to do some impressive things with its own user interface. Michael Calore goes into depth about that part of the project on Wired.com’s WebMonkey blog. We’d like to recommend his post as our Real-Time Web Article of the Day, in fact. Check it out for a closer look at the innovative effort underway at Cliqset. Top Reasons to Go With Managed WordPress Hosting Related Posts
A Delhi court on Friday granted bail to journalist Upendra Rai, who was arrested by the CBI last month for allegedly using fake information to gain access to airports across India.Special CBI judge Santosh Snehi Mann granted bail to Mr. Rai on furnishing a bail bond of ₹5 lakh, with two sureties of a like amount. The judge had last month refused bail to the journalist.The counsel for Mr. Rai submitted that no purpose would be served by keeping him in custody as the court had on May 9 rejected the CBI’s plea seeking further custody of Mr. Rai.The other accused in the case are Air One Aviation Limited, its chief security officer Prasun Roy and unidentified Bureau of Civil Aviation Security (BCAS) officials.